Update: A Generational Opportunity

Categories Author: Jim O'Shaughnessy, Investing, U.S.

“We’ve got the secret sauce. It doesn’t work all the time perfectly, but you just look at where we go, milestone after milestone:
Never bet against America.”

— Warren Buffett (Jan. 19, 2017)1

Every time I feel short-term pain, I review the long-term data — going all the way back to 1871 in this case — and it helps me focus on the stock market’s long-term potential.  Continue reading “Update: A Generational Opportunity”

2-Quarters-in-1

Categories Author: Scott Bartone, Investing, U.S.

“Frankly, [4Q16] was almost a story of two quarters in one,” explained TD Ameritrade CEO Tim Hockey a couple days before the inauguration.1 “November 8th was the election; we saw retail investors essentially go on the sidelines up until that date, trading levels were down, and then it just exploded right after that. And, it’s actually carried over into January as well — trading levels are high.”

Indeed, the 2016 Presidential Election saw a surge in equity market returns (and market activity in general, which is where Hockey’s observations come into play2). On the flip side, there was also a reversal for many investment factors and sectors. Continue reading “2-Quarters-in-1”

Small Cap Equities — Inefficient & Opportune
(Part 2 of 2)

Categories Author: Chris Meredith, Author: Ehren Stanhope, Investing, U.S., Value

(Part 1 linked here)

Avoid Value Traps via a Quality Overlay

Not every cheap stock outperforms. Even within the cheapest decile of value, there is wide dispersion in underlying stock returns. Certain stocks are cheap for a reason: value traps. Continue reading “Small Cap Equities — Inefficient & Opportune
(Part 2 of 2)”

Small Cap Equities — Inefficient & Opportune
(Part 1 of 2)

Categories Author: Chris Meredith, Author: Ehren Stanhope, Investing, U.S., Value

Small cap equities1 are generally misunderstood and underappreciated. We believe they present a phenomenal total return opportunity for discerning long-term investors. The construction of common small cap indices and the nuances of the small cap universe favor an active approach. Continue reading “Small Cap Equities — Inefficient & Opportune
(Part 1 of 2)”

Fundamental Relationships have Changed in QE’s Wake

Categories Author: Ehren Stanhope, Investing, U.S., Value, Yield

“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”

— Attributed to John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946)

I read a lot of market commentary. There are a lot of doomsayers out there. While I can’t argue with the fact that valuations are higher than they were at the market lows in 2009, the calls for a calamitous decline based on valuation seem overblown. Valuation tends not to be a good predictor of bear markets. Continue reading “Fundamental Relationships have Changed in QE’s Wake”

Buyback Bulls & Bears

Categories Author: Chris Meredith, Investing, OSAM Research, U.S., Value

A lot of attention has been paid to share repurchases recently, which makes sense given the amount of money involved. As of June 30, 2016, there had been almost $450 billion net transferred from companies to shareholders over the trailing twelve months through repurchase programs, very close to the all-time high in March of 2008. Transferring that much wealth between stakeholders will garner attention, and not all of it is positive.  Continue reading “Buyback Bulls & Bears”

When a “Value” Company is not a Value

Categories Author: Chris Meredith, Investing, OSAM Research, U.S., Value

Value has broadly been accepted as an investing style, and historically portfolios formed on cheap valuations outperformed expensive portfolios. But value comes in many flavors, and the factors(s) you choose to measure cheapness can determine your long-term success. Continue reading “When a “Value” Company is not a Value”